Realizing the demographic dividend: is Africa any different?

Can Africa realise its demographic dividend?

By: Bloom DE, Canning D, Fink G & Finlay J
Published by: African Economic Research Consortium, 2007
Via: Eldis

With solid institutional settings, Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries have the potential to reap the benefits of a demographic dividend. This paper examines whether the determinants of growth and the effects of demography are different in Africa than for the rest of the world.

Two main results emerge from its empirical analysis:
• the effects of demographic change on economic growth are sizeable, but contingent on good institutions
• the relation between demographic variables and economic growth applies to SSA countries as much as to any other country in the world.

Based on these finding, the implications for the growth prospects in SSA countries depend on two country specific factors:
• future developments in population structure, as the demographic transition does not guarantee a demographic dividend
• institutional quality that is required for individuals in the working-age population to be productive.

(http://www.aercafrica.org/documents/reproductive_health_working_papers/Bloom_Canning
_et_al_Demographic_Dividend_in_Africa.pdf)